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US Energy Policies Will Affect Longterm Market Potential

US SOLAR
Currently, the U.S. ranks behind Germany, Japan and China in terms of solar capacity.

In October '09, renewable energy executives met at a forum with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy Director Carol Browner.

Secretary Chu warned that if Congress does not pass climate change and energy reform legislation soon, the U.S. will likely be surpassed by China as a global leader in the production of wind turbines, solar panels, solid state lighting and other clean energy technologies.

According to the DOE, China invests approximately $12.6 million in clean energy every hour, and the nation is ratcheting up to generate 100 gigawatts from wind turbines by 2030.

In essence, if the U.S. lapses in building a competitive clean energy infrastructure, including complete supply chains for related technology, while signing onto a new United Nations (U.N.) greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions treaty, which will require significant reductions in fossil fuel energy usage, it may simply be exchanging foreign oil imports for Chinese or other country's green energy imports.

According to an article in Phoenix Green Business Examiner, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the original related House bill entitled the American Clean Energy and Security Act would only increase energy costs for the average household by the price of a postage stamp, 44 cents, each day. The White House has welcomed the corporate involvement and its financial backing for this capstone climate change legislation, which is one of the major prongs of Obama's overall agenda, including the green energy stimulus, as it will face a heated battle with Congressmen and lobbyists associated with the oil and coal industry in the coming months.


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Energy Reform Forum at the White House

The investor coalition Ceres and the Clean Economy Network organized a clean energy debate forum at the White House in October 2009 including corporate executives from more than 100 companies, representing a wide variety of industries including renewable energy, information technology and athletic apparel. The business leaders met with Senators and representatives of the White House.

The companies that attended the forum were:

1 Block off the Grid/Virgance, Inc., CA
A123Systems, MA
Accio Energy, MI
Adecco Government Solutions, VA
Advanced Energy Panels, NY
Agri-Tech Producers, LLC, SC
AHL-TECH, OH
Akeena Solar, CA
Algaeventure Systems, OH
Ameresco, DC
American Electric Power, OH
Archer Construction, MT
Arkansas Business Leaders for a Clean Energy
Economy, AR
Baker & McKenzie LLP, DC
Baldwin Ridge Consulting, LLC, VA
BetterWorld Telecom, VA
BlackCreek Group, VA
Blue Hill Partners LLC, PA
Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney, VA
Burdins Renewable energy, ME
Business Council for Sustainable Energy, DC
Calvert Asset Management Company, MD
Calvert Group, Ltd., MD
Carbon War Room, NY
Carbonetworks Corporation, CA
Christensen Global Strategies, LLC, DC
Clean Edge, CA
Climate Solutions, WA
Clipper Windpower, CA
COENCO Inc., AR
Conservation Services Group, MA
DAK Renwable Energy, SD
Earth Aid Enterprises, DC
eBay, CA
Ecoventures 1, CA
Efficiency First, MD
EKO Asset Management Partners, NY
ElectronVault, inc., CA
Element Partners, PA
Energy Coordinating Agency, PA
Entergy Corporation, LA
Environmental Defense Fund, DC
Equator LLC, NY
Equilibrium Capital, CO
Expansion Capital Partners, NY
Fisher Coachworks, MI
FLS Energy, NC
Foraker, CO
Four Corners Solar, CO
Gaelectric, North America, MT
Gamesa, PA
Glacier Guides/Montana Raft, MT
Global Solar Center, NY
Green Harvest Technology, MN
Green Water Consulting, CA
Greenfire Development, NC
GreenOrder, NY
GreenScience Exchange, CA
GreenVolts, Inc., CA
Hara, CA
Harvest Moon Partners, WA
Heston Wind, WI
Hewlett-Packard Company, DC
Home Performance Washington, WA
Illumination Renewables LLC, NC
ImageTree Corporation, WV
ImbuTec, PA
Imperium Renewables, Inc, WA
Independent Power Systems, MT
INEOS Bio, IL
Infinia Corporation, WA
Interstate Traveler Company, MI
Inventive Development, Inc., PA
Johnson Controls, DC
Jones Lang LaSalle, IL
K&L Gates LLP, CA
Komax Solar, PA
Lennox International, Inc., TX
Levi Strauss & Co., CA
Limbach Facility Services, PA
LivingHomes, CA/NC
M.J. Bradley & Associates, LLC, MA
Mann Plumbing/Solar Energy Systems, IN
Mariah Power, MI/NV
McKinstry, WA
MDV -- Mohr, Davidow Ventures, CA
Melink Corporation, OH
MissionPoint Capital Partners, CT
Montana Sustainable Building Systems, MT
Nanosolar, CA
Natel Energy, Inc., CA
National Grid, DC
National Venture Capital Association, VA
Natural Power Concepts, HI
New Energy Finance, MI
NGEN Partners, DC
Nike, DC
North Face, CA
NRDC, FL
Nth Power, CA
Object Management Group, NJ
Orbit Energy, Inc., NC
Osage Bio Energy, VA
Outpost Solar, TN
Pacific Carbon Exchange, CA
Pacific Crest Securities, OR
Pacific Gas and Electric Comapny, CA
Pax, NH
Pegasus Sustainable Century Merchant
Bank/Lighting Science Group, NY
Phanes Solar, a Division of Capial Communications, MT
PowerHouse/ The Garage, MT
Principle Power, WA
Project Green America, MD
PSEG, NJ
PSi, NC
Quinn Gillespie & Assoc, DC
Recycled Energy Development, LLC, IL
Renaissance Lighting, VA
Resolve Capital, CA
Ridgewood Capital, CA
Rive Technology, Inc, MA
Rockwell Collins, VA
SAIC, VA
Schiller Consulting, CA
Seagrass Recovery, FL
Serious Materials, CA
Seventh Generation, VT
Sharp Solar, CA
Shell, DC
SJF Ventures, NC
Sky WindPower, CO
SoCore Energy, IL
SoCore Energy, IL
Solazyme, Inc., CA
Solena Group, Inc., DC
Soltherm/Vanir Energy, NC
Spectrum Consulting, CA
Sponsored by Interstate Traveler, VA
Spring Ventures, CA
State of AR/Lilly's, AR
Stoel Rives LLP, WA
Sun Microsystems, MA
Sungevity, CA
SunRise Solar Inc., IN
Sustainable Future, TN
SVB Financial Group, CA
Symantec, DC
SynGest Inc., CA
TAS, TX
TechVision21, DC
The Building Doctors, CA
The Dow Chemical Company, MI
The Freshwater Trust, OR
The Pacific Carbon Exchange, CA
The S.C. Small Business Chamber of Commerce, SC
Tioga Energy, Inc., NY
Tree Hugger's Consulting, AR
United Fisherman of Alaska, AL
United Solar Ovonic, MI
Virgin America Inc., CA
Vortex Advisors LLC, NJ
Vox Energy Solutions, PA
Weber Shandwick, WA
Wellford Energy Advisors, DC
Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, CA
WindPole Ventures, MA
Winds of Change Leaseholding, LLC, AR
Wolfensohn & Co., NY
Workhouse, CA
World's Greenest Building, OR
WSGR, DC
ZeaChem, CO

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Sales of lasers for low-power materials processing has fallen by 40% 2009, but sales will grow to exceed $460 million by 2013.

Coherent, Rofin-Sinar, and GSI Group (including the revenues for Excel Technology for all of 2008) are at the top of the list in last year's market share.

While the market appears at first to be merely scaling to the world economy, it is also likely to disrupt market share in many segments, in a game of musical chairs. These are some of the conclusions of a new report from Strategies Unlimited, a market research firm covering optoelectronics markets.

The strongest growth will be in fiber lasers, diode lasers, green lasers, m ode-locked (ultrafast) lasers, and lasers for manufacturing solar cells. All segments will see some growth beginning in 2010, but there will be more shuffling of technologies and suppliers than is first apparent, given the evolving situation in these segments.

Lasers for Micro Materials Processing--2009 includes all material processing applications up to 1 kilowatt, but excluding marking and decorative engraving. The report extends its audit to over 120 applications and the wide range of technology solutions in this highly fragmented category. The report examines more segments than ever before, including: end-user sectors, processes, power levels, pulse types, laser types, and wavelengths. For more information, contact Strategies Unlimited at +1 650 941-3438 (voice) or e‑mail at info@strategies‑u.com, or check the company's web site at www.strategies-u.com.


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The Market for Image Sensors Take a Dip

The market for image sensors will decline to $6.4 billion in 2009, a drop of 11% from 2008 and the first decline since Strategies Unlimited began tracking the market in 1997.

Growth is expected to return in 2010, but the average growth rate will be in the single-digits in coming years, following over a decade of 22% compound annual growth, shown in Figure 1.



Figure: Image sensor revenues (visible range area arrays and packaged linear arrays, including captive production). Source: Strategies Unlimited (2009)

A new, more cyclic phase


There's a perfect convergence of forces leading to rapid growth
in image sensor revenues for cameraphones.

The current global economic cycle is driving a temporary decline, but cycles will have a stronger effect going forward, now that the perfect convergence of forces leading to rapid growth in image sensor revenues for cameraphones is maturing. There will still be growth in unit sales in coming years for image sensors overall, but short-term fluctuations in demand, periods of oversupply and shortage, and severe price pressure will make it more challenging to stay competitive than before.

CCD Turmoil in Japan.

Japan used to dominate world image sensor production, and still manufactures over 90% of the world's CCDs. CCDs continue to dominate in digital still cameras and security cameras. Even so, Fujifilm stopped production of image sensors for its line of cameras in 2007. Sony is thinking of stopping its production of CMOS arrays for cameraphones, and Panasonic has already done so.

Koreans make huge strides.

Meanwhile, Korean and Taiwanese suppliers are gaining market share, especially for cameraphones.

Samsung grew 61% from 2006 to 2008, placing it among the top suppliers.

We are also seeing increased competition from other Korean and Taiwanese companies, such as SETi, SiliconFile Technologies, and PixArt Imaging. Hynix reentered the image sensor business in the second half of 2008. These companies are focusing on the China handset market.

Image Sensors: Market Review and Forecast-2009 is the fifth in a series by Strategies Unlimited and it continues to be the most comprehensive and in-depth market report on the subject. It includes all image sensing applications in the visible spectrum, including scintillator-coated arrays for x-ray radiography. The study draws heavily on Strategies Unlimited's extensive interviews with suppliers in Japan, Korea, the U.S., and Europe, combined with its deep expertise in this market. For more information, contact Strategies Unlimited at +1 650 941-3438 (voice) or e mail at info@strategies u.com, or check the company's web site at www.strategies-u.com.

Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and strategic consulting directed at optoelectronics and compound semiconductors. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation, a global media and information company. 


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