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Market conditions are right for the LED replacement lamp market to accelerate in the next few years, according to a new report from Strategies Unlimited. Although the market for LED replacement lamps is still in its early stages of development, lamp revenues are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 107% through 2013.

The report entitled "LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009" analyzes five LED-based lamp types that are designed to replace lamps that currently populate billions of sockets:

• A-lamps and globes
• PAR and R lamps
• MR 16s
• candelabra and decorative lamps
• linear fluorescent tubes

LED Performance Enhances Market Position

Dramatic improvements in commercially available LED performance in recent years, as well as significant cost reduction, has made it feasible to design LED lamps to offer comparable lumen output and to compete with other established lighting technologies on the basis of cost of ownership. 

The market is in a state of flux as utilities, energy efficiency organizations and customers look for optimum solutions which save energy, minimize the cost of ownership, and give acceptable quality of light.

Customers are in the process of being educated about comparing cost of ownership, rather than looking just at the initial price of lamps. 

Regulations Decrease Incandescent Market

Regulations in Europe will ban the 100W incandescent clear glass lamp starting in September 2009, and will progressively ban all inefficient incandescent lamps by 2012 and all incandescent lamps by 2016. Similarly, the Energy Information and Security Act of 2007 began the process of restricting the sale of inefficient lamps in the US.

By 2012, with a few exceptions, the result of incandescent lighting legislation will be that inefficient incandescent lamps cannot be sold.

GlacialLight replacement LED lamp

Although the awareness of these regulations is still weak in the marketplace, they will create market opportunities for LED replacement lamps.

LED Technology Outpaces CFLs

Over the next five years the advantages of LED technology over CFL will become recognized, especially with respect to the

• quality of light
• dimmability
• controllability
• lamp life
  
• environmental cost of ownership
  

Some well-designed LED lamps already offer effective lumen efficacies that compete with CFLs.

Commercial and industrial market segments will embrace LEDs to control costs and save energy. 

In the report, the markets for five categories of replacement lamps are analyzed for market drivers and challenges, trends, units and revenues for 2008. The report also offers a five-year forecast for 2009-2013.

"LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009" is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited at a price of $1,895. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650-941-3438 ext. 23, or on the Strategies Unlimited website.

Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and has published reports on LED markets and technology since 1994. It established Strategies in Light, the first annual industry conference on HB LEDs, in 2000. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation., which publishes over 45 periodicals, including LEDs Magazine.

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A recent report by McKinsey & Company cited conversion to LED lighting as potentially the most cost effective of a number of simple approaches to tackling global warming using existing technology.

LED lighting was once used in computer dashboards,  basketball scoreboards, cellphone consoles, traffic lights and colored Christmas lights.

But as a result of rapid developments in LED light, cost efficiency and cooler technology, LED lighting is now poised to become common on streets and in buildings, as well as in homes and offices.

Some American cities, including Ann Arbor, Mich., and Raleigh, N.C., are using LED lights to illuminate streets and parking garages, and dozens more are exploring the cost and environmental benefits of LED technology.

LED lighting is a growing part of LEED cetified green buildings to improve lighting control and reduce energy use.  With new downlight styles as well as flat panels, new architectural applications are rapidly developing.

And don't forget that what's good for the Queen, could be good for your home -- the 60-foot-high ceiling lights of Buckingham Palace's grand stairwell are now illuminated with LEDs!

The McKinsey Research Report

Starting in 2007, the McKinsey research team worked with leading experts to develop a detailed fact base estimating costs and potentials of different options to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions in the US over a 25 year period.  The team analyzed more than 250 options encompassing efficiency gains, shifts to lower-carbon energy sources and expanded carbon sinks.

Central Conclusion

The US could reduce GHG emissions in 2030 by 3 - 4.5 gigatons of CO2e using tested approaches and high-potential emerging technologies.  The cost would be less tan $50 per ton, with the average net cost to the economy being far lower if the nation can capture sizable gains from energy efficiency.  Achievement of these reductions would require strong, coordinated, economy-wide action that begins in the near future.

One complicating factor is reaching goals is that a gradual decrease in the absorption of carbon by US forests and agricultural lands will reduce achievements, and require greater GHG reductions.

Abatement Opportunities

• The largest option -- coal-fired power plants -- offers less than 11 percent of total abatement potential.  The largest sector (power generation) only accounts for approximately 1/3 of the total potential.
• Almost 40% of abatement could be achieved with options that would generate positive economic returns over their lifecycle. 
• Abatement potentials, costs and mix vary by geographic region. 

Five Sectors offer Clusters of Abatement Potential

1. Improve energy efficiency in buildings and appliances  (710-870 megatons)
This cluster of options includes:  Lighting rtrofits, Improved heating, ventialation, air conditioning systems, Building envelopes, and building control systems; Higher performance for consumer and office electronics and appliances...and other options.

2.  Imcrease fuel efficiency in vehicles and reduce carbon intensity of transportation fuels (340-660 megatons)
Most of the benefit would come from fuel economy packages such as light weighting, aerodynamics, turbocharging, drive-train efficiency, reduction in rolling resistance, and increased use of diesel for light-duty vehicles.  Plug-in hybrid vehicels offer longer-term potential if vehicle cost/performance improves and the nation moves to a lower-carbon electricity supply.

3.  Industrial Sector pursues various options cross energy-intensive operations (620-770 megatons)
A multitude of fragmented opportunities exist within specific industries:  Equipment upgrades, process changes  -- and across setors:  Motor efficiency, combined heat and power applications. 

4.  Expand and enhance carbon sinks (440-590 megatons)
Increasing forest stocks and improving soil mnagement practices are relatively low-cost options.

5.  Reduce carbon intensity of electric power production (800-1370 megatons)
Shift toward renewable energy sources primarily wind and solar, additional nuclear capacity, mproved efficiency of power plants and eventual use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies on coal-fired electricity generation. 

"The theme of greater energy productivity pervades these clusters." 

Improving energy efficiency in buildings and appliances and industrial sectors, for example, could offset some 85% of the projected incremental demand for electricity in 2030, largely negating the need for the incremental coal-fired power plants assumed in the government reference case.

Improved vehicle efficiency could roughly offset the added mobility-related emissions of a growing population, while providing net economic gains.  

SOURCE: Download the full report at  Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report 11.21.07

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