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A report released by Strategies Unlimited entitled LED lighting Fixtures -Market Analysis and Forecast provides a detailed assessment of the market drivers and challenges faced by the LED lighting fixture industry in penetrating the general illumination market.

The report  provides application analyses and forecasts for nine lighting market segments through 2012.

Through 2007, LED lighting applications included niche markets such as

• exit signs
• architectural lighting
• accent and decorative lighting
• entertainment lighting
• ...many of which used red, green, and blue LEDs.

Market Growth of White LED Fixtures

However, white LED fixtures have begun to capture a strong market position in selected applications such as consumer portable lighting (e.g. flashlights, headlamps) and solar landscape lighting , and more recently have begun to be used on a limited basis in applications such as retail display lighting, commercial and industrial lighting, and outdoor area lighting.

In 2008, white LED fixtures accounted for just over 50%
of the total LED lighting fixture market.

The penetration of white LED lighting fixtures into general illumination applications will accelerate when such fixtures offer quantifiable energy and cost savings relative to the use of conventional light sources.

Performance Gains = Efficacy = Market Gains

In recent years, LED technology has made impressive performance gains, which in turn have improved the efficacy of LED lighting fixtures.

The Holy Grail of Performance:  100 lumens per watt

In the forecast period 2008-2012 white LED fixtures will make gains in market share as the best commercially available high-performance white LEDs move beyond luminous efficacies of 100 lumens per watt.

Further improvements in designing fixtures that can optimize LED operation are expected to drive the growth in LED lighting fixture market. Both recessionary pressures and mass manufacturing of LED lighting fixtures will further reduce the cost of manufacturing.

Opportunity Will Be In General Illumination Applications

As the LED lighting market grows beyond single color and color-changing applications into general illumination applications such as

• residential
• commercial
  
• off-grid applications,
  
• ultimately into outdoor area applications,
  

...it is forecast to exceed $5 billion in 2012 , corresponding to a CAGR of 28% from 2008-2012.

By then it will be only be the beginning for the ultimate replacement of conventional light sources, including high-efficiency fluorescent and HID fixtures. However, many challenges face the LED industry to accomplish that goal, all of which are discussed in the report.

LED Lighting Fixtures - Market Analysis and Forecast is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited.

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LED business ... Design arena is the opportunity today!

Diffusers... new colors, new designs...

Who attended the Strategies in Light 2009  show?

The audience profile reflects the following business segments:

• LED manufacturers
• Suppliers of equipment and materials to the LED industry
• LED system manufacturers
• Lighting architects
• Automotive lighting suppliers
• Lighting product manufacturers
• Lighting system designers
• LED product designers
• Financial analysts, investment bankers, and venture capitalists
• Corporate R & D staff

The senior decision makers represent some of the leading companies in LED manufacturing such as:

• Nichia
• Cree
• Agilent
• Stanley Electric
• Toyoda Gosei
• Philips/Lumileds
• Everlight
• Rohm
• Epistar
• Bridgelux
• Arima Optoelectronics
• LG Innotek
• Cotco
• Liteon
• Sharp
• Osram Opto Semiconductors
• Samsung Electro- Mechanics

Strategies Unlimited Reports High-Brightness LED Market Poised for Rapid Growth in 2010 and Beyond

Market Report: September 14, 2009
 

• Continuing the trend of recent years, high-brightness LED market growth for 2008 was 11%, reaching $5.1 billion, in spite of a shaky fourth quarter.
• However, a decline of 3.7% is expected for 2009, resulting in a market size of $4.9 billion.

This decline will not affect all HB LED market segments equally. For example, although some of the more mature markets such as automotive lighting, mobile phones, and outdoor video screens are experiencing substan tial downturns, other emerging segments such as backlights for LCD displays in notebook computers and TVs are showing strong growth.

• Moreover, the LED lighting market is also continuing to grow, although at a somewhat slower pace than in recent years.

According to market research firm Strategies Unlimited in its recently released report High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast - 2009, lighting and LCD backlighting are the applications that will drive market reco very in 2010 and over the next five years, with market growth forecast at a CAGR of 24%, reaching $14.9 billion in 2013.

In all market segments, the penetration rates for the use
of HB LEDs continue to grow.

The fundamental drivers for HB LED adoption have not changed. It is the impact of the worldwide economic recession on end product demand, rather than any slowdown in the rate of HB LED adoption, that is causing the HB LED market to dip in 2009.

As noted above, lighting and LCD backlighting are providing strong counterweights to the decline in other segments, and they have moderated the rate of overall HB LED market contraction.

The new Strategies Unlimited report is the tenth from the company on LED applications and markets. It analyzes the HB LED market in depth, from both the demand side and the supply side, including supplier market shares. Detailed quantitative market analysis is provided, including breakouts by application and product type, in terms of units, ASPs and revenue. Five-year market forecasts are provided for each application and HB LED product type.

High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast -- 2009 is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited for $5,450. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650 941-3438 ext. 23, or by email at tcarli@strategies-u.com.

Founded in 1979, Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and strategic consulting directed at the optoelectronics and compound semiconductor industries. It has published reports on LED markets and technology since 1994, and it established the first annual industry conference on HB LEDs, known as Strategies in Light, in 2000. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation.

Quantifying the Future

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Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research reports, custom studies, and newsletters directed at the optoelectronic, optical communications, photovoltaic, compound semiconductor material, and RF/microwave components industries.  With its in-depth understanding of market applications, technology developments, industry participants, and government policies, the company has attained an outstanding record in market forecasting.

Robert V. Steele
Director, LED Practice
B.S. Chemistry, M.I.T.
Ph.D. Physical Chemistry,
University of California (Berkeley)

At Strategies Unlimited since 1982, Dr. Steele is responsible for optoelectronics studies and reports on such subjects as high-brightness LEDs, solid-state lighting, laser diodes, datacom transceivers, and advanced compound semiconductor materials. He is the chair of Strategies Unlimited's annual conference Strategies in Light on the high brightness LED industry. Previously he was also the editor of the Strategies Unlimited optoelectronics industry newsletter, The Light Source, and was a major contributor to 16 studies prepared for the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association's (OIDA) roadmap program. Dr. Steele writes regularly for industry publications on high-brightness LED markets and applications, and has been an invited speaker at several international conferences. As an internationally recognized expert in this subject has been interviewed and quoted by major publications, including Forbes, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist, among others.

Dr. Steele has over 30 years of professional experience, and was previously employed at SRI International, Flow General, and United Technologies Corporation.

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The incandescent bulb is turning into a case study of the way government mandates can spur innovation.

Despite a decade of campaigns by the government and utilities to persuade people to switch to energy-saving compact fluorescents, incandescent bulbs still occupy an estimated 90 percent of household sockets in the United States. Aside from the aesthetic and practical objections to fluorescents, old-style incandescents have the advantage of being remarkably cheap.

"There's a massive misperception that incandescents are going away quickly," said Chris Calwell, a researcher with Ecos Consulting who studies the bulb market. "There have been more incandescent innovations in the last three years than in the last two decades."

The first bulbs to emerge from this push, Philips Lighting's Halogena Energy Savers, are expensive compared with older incandescents. They sell for $5 apiece and more, compared with as little as $ .25 for standard bulbs.

But they are also 30% more efficient than older bulbs. Philips says that a 70-watt Halogena Energy Saver gives off the same amount of light as a traditional 100-watt bulb and lasts about three times as long, eventually paying for itself.

The line, for now sold exclusively at Home Depot and on Amazon.com, is not as efficient as compact fluorescent light bulbs, which can use 75 percent less energy than old-style bulbs. But the Energy Saver line is finding favor with consumers who dislike the light from fluorescent bulbs or are bothered by such factors as their slow start-up time and mercury content.

"Due to the 2007 federal energy bill that phases out inefficient incandescent light bulbs beginning in 2012, we are finally seeing a race" to develop more efficient ones, said Noah Horowitz, senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Some of the leading work is under way at a company called Deposition Sciences here in Santa Rosa. Its technology is a key component of the new Philips bulb line.

The big three lighting companies -- General Electric, Osram Sylvania and Philips -- are all working on the technology, as is Auer Lighting of Germany and Toshiba of Japan.

A third technology, bulbs using light-emitting diodes, promises remarkable gains in efficiency but is still expensive. Prices can exceed $100 for a single LED bulb, and results from a government testing program indicate such bulbs still have performance problems.

That suggests that LEDs -- though widely used in specialized applications like electronic products and, increasingly, street lights -- may not displace incumbent technologies in the home any time soon.

Read More:  NY Times

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