Recently in Market Forecasts Category

Top Players in the LED Research & Marketplace

Top R&D Achievements Honored at DOE Solid-State Lighting Workshop

February 05, 2010

Nine research and development project teams were honored at "Transformations in Lighting," the seventh annual U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solid-State Lighting (SSL) R&D Workshop, held in Raleigh, North Carolina. The three-day event brought together more than 350 researchers, manufacturers, and other industry insiders and observers interested in keeping up to date on the latest solid-state lighting technology developments.

The following organizations were recognized by DOE for significant breakthroughs and achievements in 2009, representing research conducted at large and small companies, universities, and research institutions:

Llight-emitting diodes (LEDs)

Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs)  

  • Sandia National Laboratories was recognized for its use of novel spectroscopy in improving the efficiency of green LEDs.
  • University of Florida was recognized for achieving a record efficacy of 59 lm/W in a blue phosphorescent OLED.
  • PhosphorTech Corporation was recognized for its work in developing advanced phosphor materials to increase the efficiency of LED lamps.
  • Los Alamos National Laboratory was recognized for its efforts to develop new materials to lower the cost of OLED manufacturing.
  • Cree, Inc. was recognized for significant improvements in its cool-white multichip LED prototype, which demonstrated record efficacy of 117 lm/W.
  • Arkema, Inc. was recognized for its work in developing a lower-cost substitute for indium as a key component of OLED anodes.
  • Osram Sylvania Development Inc. was recognized for demonstrating an efficient warm-white LED light engine for use in downlights.
  • Universal Display Corporation was recognized for moving toward the development of commercially viable white OLED panels by fabricating a white OLED that achieves 68 lm/W.
  • Philips Lumileds Lighting, LLC was recognized for improving warm-white LED performance by demonstrating an LED with an efficacy of 83 lm/W.

For more information about the DOE Solid-State Lighting R&D Portfolio, visit the R&D Projects page on EERE's Solid-State Lighting Web site. Workshop highlights and presentations will be posted on the EERE Solid-State Lighting Web site soon.


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

Bridgelux LED Arrays Break Costs With Efficiencies

An LED light, as packaged by Bridgelux



Bill Watkins had a lot of career choices to consider after his surprise departure a year ago as chief executive of Seagate Technology. Now he's found his new focus-illumination. The veteran disk drive executive is the new chief executive of Bridgelux, a well-funded startup that is entering the market for solid-state lighting devices.

"Metal halides are the highest-quality light source. Conventional LEDs cannot put enough light in a small space to replace them," said Bridgelux president Mark Swoboda. "These light sources have every bit of the oomph to create enough light. They can pretty much duplicate what the high intensity discharge lights can do."

The ES and LS series, meanwhile, are geared toward replacing conventional compact fluorescents and incandescents. Bridgelux does not make complete bulbs or lamps. Instead, it provides the LEDs and all the electronics in an integrated package that others can assemble into a final product. Expect announcements in a few months that will try to increase the interoperability of LED components with the existing lighting industry.

"The light market is used to a socket and a bulb," said Swoboda.

Although it has been promised for years, the solid state lighting revolution finally appears to be close at hand. For one thing, policy will dictate it: incandescents are already being phased out in Australia and the EU; Canada, the U.S. and others will follow with similar regulations that take effect from now through 2014.

Bridgelux, now based in Sunnyvale, Calif., has raised about $70 million already and is just announcing another funding round of $50 million, led by VantagePoint Venture Partners. The company plans to set up a new factory for making LEDs in Livermore, to the east of Silicon Valley.

Technology plays a role, too. High-end LED lamps have dropped 30 to 60 percent in price from a year ago, Swoboda said. The lower price, combined with the fact that LEDs require far less maintenance and energy, are making the economic argument attractive. Ideally, LED bulbs will cost around $25 in one to two years. (Today, a 60-watt equivalent can cost $40 or more.) Because the lights save around $15 in yearly electricity costs, demand is expected to escalate. The video here shows one of the first Bridgelux arrays.

Mark van den Berg, a VantagePoint managing director, estimates that LEDs are roughly ten times more energy-efficient than incandescent bulbs. They are also, unfortunately, much more expensive. Van den Berg says a consumer can buy an ordinary bulb for as little as two for fifty cents, where a decent fluorescent bulb for home use is $12.99 or so (low-quality versions are quite a bit cheaper, he allows), and an LED light is now $30.

"But it's on its way to ten bucks" within 12 months, he says, with companies like Bridgelux helping to improve the technology.

Who will make it in LEDs?

It's hard to say at this point.   The company's light arrays do cut the price of LEDs, and in general, Bridgelux is fairly well regarded. Other start-ups to watch include Luminus Devices (large, bright LEDs), Lunera (sideways LEDs) Renaissance Lighting (fancy fixtures) and D.Light Design. Entrenched players such as Philips Electronics, Cree, Toyoda Gosei, Osram (known as Sylvania in the U.S.), and Nichia. 

The challenge will come from multinationals  -- General Electric, Philips, Osram, TSMC, Toshiba, Panasonic, Sharp, etc. -- who also want to dominate the market. Expect  acquisitions and consolidation within a few years.

But LEDs aren't the only light technology coming to market.

Luxim announced it has created a street light around its plasma light bulb that it says can save $145 per fixture. Luxim's bulb is about the size of a Tic Tac, but it emanates about the same amount of light as a spotlight. The light is generated by intensely focusing energy on a small chamber of gases. Luxim originally marketed the bulb to the projection TV industry, but that effort eventually died out. 


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

Osram Life-cycle Assessment has concluded that "LED lamps are already today more than five times more efficient than incandescent lamps and future technical achievements offer additional potential for the coming years."

Read the LED life-cycle research! The total LCA also shows that the LED lamp is one of the most environmentally friendly lighting products.

The life-cycle assessment looks at manufacturing, usage and end of life realities.

An OSRAM study monitored the life cycle of an LED and an LED lamp. It´s outcome made it clear - LED lamps need less than 2% of their energy consumption for their manufacture - over 98% are used for their task: illuminating the world.

Click here for more information about this study.

The aim of OSRAM Opto Semiconductors' LCA is therefore to analyse the environmental impact of an LED lamp over its entire life and to compare it with a compact fluorescent lamp and an incandescent lamp. The relevant material and energy supplies were determined in detail for all the LED lamp's components and production processes. Apart from a detailed analysis of each individual production stage, for LED chips and lamp housings, for example, these also include all necessary transports such as the transport of an LED lamp from its production site in China to its place of installation in Europe.

Apart from direct input of raw materials, the energy input, materials and emissions associated with the retrieval of resources are recorded. The results allow for conclusions not only on resource consumption and primary energy input but also acidification, eutrophication, the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and toxicity.

The bottom line is that LED are efficient

In the first LCA, OSRAM Opto Semiconductors show that LED lamps are a genuine alternative to incandescent lamps, even when considering the cumulative energy input and environmental factors.

Often these fundamentally different lamps were compared based on their wattage. Conventional lamps with filaments are way behind diode lamps. A 40 Watt incandescent lamp, for example, can either be replaced by an 8W compact fluorescent light or, for some applications, by an 8W LED lamp, which means an energy saving of 80 percent.

In order to guarantee the comparability of results in the LCA, a lifetime of 25,000 hours was chosen as reference. The latest LED lamp generation (Parathom Classic A55 with Golden Dragon Plus LED) achieves precisely this rating. Therefore, 25 incandescent lamps (OSRAM Classic A 40W) with a lifetime of 1,000 hours and 2.5 fluorescent lamps (Dulux Superstar Classic A 8W) lasting 10,000 hours have to be used for a comparison.

Over 98 percent of the energy used to produce light

The study was done in collaboration with experts at Siemens Corporate Technology, Centre for Eco Innovations and shows that similar to compact fluorescent lamps with LED-based lamps over 98% of the energy used is consumed to generate light. Less than two percent is allocated to production. This has dismissed any concern that manufacturing of LED particularly might be very energy-intensive. In contrast to the primary energy consumption of incandescent lamps of around 3,300kWh, LED lamps use less than 700kWh. The bottom line is that LED lamps are therefore definitely more efficient than conventional incandescent lamps. Apart from this, the ratings that indicate the lamps' effects on the environment are consistently better than those for incandescent lamps. As the efficiency of LED continues to increase, LED lamps will be capable of achieving even better LCA results in future. Three independent experts are currently verifying the findings of the internal study.

A summary of the study is available at www.osram-os.com/life-cycle-assessment.


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

US Energy Policies Will Affect Longterm Market Potential

US SOLAR
Currently, the U.S. ranks behind Germany, Japan and China in terms of solar capacity.

In October '09, renewable energy executives met at a forum with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy Director Carol Browner.

Secretary Chu warned that if Congress does not pass climate change and energy reform legislation soon, the U.S. will likely be surpassed by China as a global leader in the production of wind turbines, solar panels, solid state lighting and other clean energy technologies.

According to the DOE, China invests approximately $12.6 million in clean energy every hour, and the nation is ratcheting up to generate 100 gigawatts from wind turbines by 2030.

In essence, if the U.S. lapses in building a competitive clean energy infrastructure, including complete supply chains for related technology, while signing onto a new United Nations (U.N.) greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions treaty, which will require significant reductions in fossil fuel energy usage, it may simply be exchanging foreign oil imports for Chinese or other country's green energy imports.

According to an article in Phoenix Green Business Examiner, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the original related House bill entitled the American Clean Energy and Security Act would only increase energy costs for the average household by the price of a postage stamp, 44 cents, each day. The White House has welcomed the corporate involvement and its financial backing for this capstone climate change legislation, which is one of the major prongs of Obama's overall agenda, including the green energy stimulus, as it will face a heated battle with Congressmen and lobbyists associated with the oil and coal industry in the coming months.


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

Market Projections for LED Lights = $5 Billion in 2012

A report released by Strategies Unlimited entitled LED lighting Fixtures -Market Analysis and Forecast provides a detailed assessment of the market drivers and challenges faced by the LED lighting fixture industry in penetrating the general illumination market.

The report  provides application analyses and forecasts for nine lighting market segments through 2012.

Through 2007, LED lighting applications included niche markets such as

  • exit signs
  • architectural lighting
  • accent and decorative lighting
  • entertainment lighting
  • ...many of which used red, green, and blue LEDs.

Market Growth of White LED Fixtures

However, white LED fixtures have begun to capture a strong market position in selected applications such as consumer portable lighting (e.g. flashlights, headlamps) and solar landscape lighting , and more recently have begun to be used on a limited basis in applications such as retail display lighting, commercial and industrial lighting, and outdoor area lighting.

In 2008, white LED fixtures accounted for just over 50%
of the total LED lighting fixture market.

The penetration of white LED lighting fixtures into general illumination applications will accelerate when such fixtures offer quantifiable energy and cost savings relative to the use of conventional light sources.

Performance Gains = Efficacy = Market Gains

In recent years, LED technology has made impressive performance gains, which in turn have improved the efficacy of LED lighting fixtures.

The Holy Grail of Performance:  100 lumens per watt

In the forecast period 2008-2012 white LED fixtures will make gains in market share as the best commercially available high-performance white LEDs move beyond luminous efficacies of 100 lumens per watt.

Further improvements in designing fixtures that can optimize LED operation are expected to drive the growth in LED lighting fixture market. Both recessionary pressures and mass manufacturing of LED lighting fixtures will further reduce the cost of manufacturing.

Opportunity Will Be In General Illumination Applications

As the LED lighting market grows beyond single color and color-changing applications into general illumination applications such as

  • residential
  • commercial
  • off-grid applications,
  • ultimately into outdoor area applications,

...it is forecast to exceed $5 billion in 2012 , corresponding to a CAGR of 28% from 2008-2012.

By then it will be only be the beginning for the ultimate replacement of conventional light sources, including high-efficiency fluorescent and HID fixtures. However, many challenges face the LED industry to accomplish that goal, all of which are discussed in the report.

LED Lighting Fixtures - Market Analysis and Forecast is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited.


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

Strategies in Light, Market View in 2009

LED business ... Design arena is the opportunity today!

Diffusers... new colors, new designs...

Who attended the Strategies in Light 2009  show?

The audience profile reflects the following business segments:

  • LED manufacturers
  • Suppliers of equipment and materials to the LED industry
  • LED system manufacturers
  • Lighting architects
  • Automotive lighting suppliers
  • Lighting product manufacturers
  • Lighting system designers
  • LED product designers
  • Financial analysts, investment bankers, and venture capitalists
  • Corporate R & D staff

The senior decision makers represent some of the leading companies in LED manufacturing such as:

  • Nichia
  • Cree
  • Agilent
  • Stanley Electric
  • Toyoda Gosei
  • Philips/Lumileds
  • Everlight
  • Rohm
  • Epistar
  • Bridgelux
  • Arima Optoelectronics
  • LG Innotek
  • Cotco
  • Liteon
  • Sharp
  • Osram Opto Semiconductors
  • Samsung Electro- Mechanics
Strategies Unlimited Reports High-Brightness LED Market Poised for Rapid Growth in 2010 and Beyond

Market Report: September 14, 2009
 
  • Continuing the trend of recent years, high-brightness LED market growth for 2008 was 11%, reaching $5.1 billion, in spite of a shaky fourth quarter.
  • However, a decline of 3.7% is expected for 2009, resulting in a market size of $4.9 billion.
This decline will not affect all HB LED market segments equally. For example, although some of the more mature markets such as automotive lighting, mobile phones, and outdoor video screens are experiencing substan tial downturns, other emerging segments such as backlights for LCD displays in notebook computers and TVs are showing strong growth.
  • Moreover, the LED lighting market is also continuing to grow, although at a somewhat slower pace than in recent years.

According to market research firm Strategies Unlimited in its recently released report High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast - 2009, lighting and LCD backlighting are the applications that will drive market reco very in 2010 and over the next five years, with market growth forecast at a CAGR of 24%, reaching $14.9 billion in 2013.

In all market segments, the penetration rates for the use
of HB LEDs continue to grow.

The fundamental drivers for HB LED adoption have not changed. It is the impact of the worldwide economic recession on end product demand, rather than any slowdown in the rate of HB LED adoption, that is causing the HB LED market to dip in 2009.

As noted above, lighting and LCD backlighting are providing strong counterweights to the decline in other segments, and they have moderated the rate of overall HB LED market contraction.

The new Strategies Unlimited report is the tenth from the company on LED applications and markets. It analyzes the HB LED market in depth, from both the demand side and the supply side, including supplier market shares. Detailed quantitative market analysis is provided, including breakouts by application and product type, in terms of units, ASPs and revenue. Five-year market forecasts are provided for each application and HB LED product type.

High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast -- 2009 is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited for $5,450. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650 941-3438 ext. 23, or by email at tcarli@strategies-u.com.

Founded in 1979, Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and strategic consulting directed at the optoelectronics and compound semiconductor industries. It has published reports on LED markets and technology since 1994, and it established the first annual industry conference on HB LEDs, known as Strategies in Light, in 2000. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation.


Quantifying the Future


Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research reports, custom studies, and newsletters directed at the optoelectronic, optical communications, photovoltaic, compound semiconductor material, and RF/microwave components industries.  With its in-depth understanding of market applications, technology developments, industry participants, and government policies, the company has attained an outstanding record in market forecasting.

Robert V. Steele
Director, LED Practice
B.S. Chemistry, M.I.T.
Ph.D. Physical Chemistry,
University of California (Berkeley)

At Strategies Unlimited since 1982, Dr. Steele is responsible for optoelectronics studies and reports on such subjects as high-brightness LEDs, solid-state lighting, laser diodes, datacom transceivers, and advanced compound semiconductor materials. He is the chair of Strategies Unlimited's annual conference Strategies in Light on the high brightness LED industry. Previously he was also the editor of the Strategies Unlimited optoelectronics industry newsletter, The Light Source, and was a major contributor to 16 studies prepared for the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association's (OIDA) roadmap program. Dr. Steele writes regularly for industry publications on high-brightness LED markets and applications, and has been an invited speaker at several international conferences. As an internationally recognized expert in this subject has been interviewed and quoted by major publications, including Forbes, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist, among others.

Dr. Steele has over 30 years of professional experience, and was previously employed at SRI International, Flow General, and United Technologies Corporation.


Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com

LED Replacement Lamps - Market Analysis & Forecast 2009

Market conditions are right for the LED replacement lamp market to accelerate in the next few years, according to a new report from Strategies Unlimited. Although the market for LED replacement lamps is still in its early stages of development, lamp revenues are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 107% through 2013.

The report entitled "LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009" analyzes five LED-based lamp types that are designed to replace lamps that currently populate billions of sockets:
  • A-lamps and globes
  • PAR and R lamps
  • MR 16s
  • candelabra and decorative lamps
  • linear fluorescent tubes
LED Performance Enhances Market Position


Dramatic improvements in commercially available LED performance in recent years, as well as significant cost reduction, has made it feasible to design LED lamps to offer comparable lumen output and to compete with other established lighting technologies on the basis of cost of ownership. 

The market is in a state of flux as utilities, energy efficiency organizations and customers look for optimum solutions which save energy, minimize the cost of ownership, and give acceptable quality of light.

Customers are in the process of being educated about comparing cost of ownership, rather than looking just at the initial price of lamps. 

Regulations Decrease Incandescent Market

Regulations in Europe will ban the 100W incandescent clear glass lamp starting in September 2009, and will progressively ban all inefficient incandescent lamps by 2012 and all incandescent lamps by 2016. Similarly, the Energy Information and Security Act of 2007 began the process of restricting the sale of inefficient lamps in the US.

By 2012, with a few exceptions, the result of incandescent lighting legislation will be that inefficient incandescent lamps cannot be sold.


GlacialLight replacement LED lamp
Although the awareness of these regulations is still weak in the marketplace, they will create market opportunities for LED replacement lamps.

LED Technology Outpaces CFLs

Over the next five years the advantages of LED technology over CFL will become recognized, especially with respect to the

  • quality of light
  • dimmability
  • controllability
  • lamp life
  • environmental cost of ownership

Some well-designed LED lamps already offer effective lumen efficacies that compete with CFLs.

Commercial and industrial market segments will embrace LEDs to control costs and save energy. 

In the report, the markets for five categories of replacement lamps are analyzed for market drivers and challenges, trends, units and revenues for 2008. The report also offers a five-year forecast for 2009-2013.

"LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009" is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited at a price of $1,895. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650-941-3438 ext. 23, or on the Strategies Unlimited website.

Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and has published reports on LED markets and technology since 1994. It established Strategies in Light, the first annual industry conference on HB LEDs, in 2000. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation., which publishes over 45 periodicals, including LEDs Magazine.




Green Directory: SolutionsForGreen.com ~ Certification Programs: GreenJobWizard.com



Categories