September 2009 Archives

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A report released by Strategies Unlimited entitled LED lighting Fixtures -Market Analysis and Forecast provides a detailed assessment of the market drivers and challenges faced by the LED lighting fixture industry in penetrating the general illumination market.

The report  provides application analyses and forecasts for nine lighting market segments through 2012.

Through 2007, LED lighting applications included niche markets such as

• exit signs
• architectural lighting
• accent and decorative lighting
• entertainment lighting
• ...many of which used red, green, and blue LEDs.

Market Growth of White LED Fixtures

However, white LED fixtures have begun to capture a strong market position in selected applications such as consumer portable lighting (e.g. flashlights, headlamps) and solar landscape lighting , and more recently have begun to be used on a limited basis in applications such as retail display lighting, commercial and industrial lighting, and outdoor area lighting.

In 2008, white LED fixtures accounted for just over 50%
of the total LED lighting fixture market.

The penetration of white LED lighting fixtures into general illumination applications will accelerate when such fixtures offer quantifiable energy and cost savings relative to the use of conventional light sources.

Performance Gains = Efficacy = Market Gains

In recent years, LED technology has made impressive performance gains, which in turn have improved the efficacy of LED lighting fixtures.

The Holy Grail of Performance:  100 lumens per watt

In the forecast period 2008-2012 white LED fixtures will make gains in market share as the best commercially available high-performance white LEDs move beyond luminous efficacies of 100 lumens per watt.

Further improvements in designing fixtures that can optimize LED operation are expected to drive the growth in LED lighting fixture market. Both recessionary pressures and mass manufacturing of LED lighting fixtures will further reduce the cost of manufacturing.

Opportunity Will Be In General Illumination Applications

As the LED lighting market grows beyond single color and color-changing applications into general illumination applications such as

• residential
• commercial
  
• off-grid applications,
  
• ultimately into outdoor area applications,
  

...it is forecast to exceed $5 billion in 2012 , corresponding to a CAGR of 28% from 2008-2012.

By then it will be only be the beginning for the ultimate replacement of conventional light sources, including high-efficiency fluorescent and HID fixtures. However, many challenges face the LED industry to accomplish that goal, all of which are discussed in the report.

LED Lighting Fixtures - Market Analysis and Forecast is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited.

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Market conditions are right for the LED replacement lamp market to accelerate in the next few years, according to a new market report by Strategies Unlimited, the leading firm covering the LED market.

LED Market Advantages: quality of light, dimmability, controllability, lamp life and environmental cost of ownership.

Dramatic improvements in commercially available LED performance in recent years, as well as significant cost reduction, has made it feasible to design LED lamps to offer comparable lumen output and to compete with other established lighting technologies on the basis of cost of ownership.  

The market is in a state of flux as utilities, energy efficiency organizations and customers look for optimum solutions which save energy, minimize the cost of ownership, and give acceptable quality of light.

Customer Education

Customers are in the process of being educated about comparing cost of ownership rather than the initial price of lamps.

Regulations Drive European Market

Regulations in Europe will ban the 100W incandescent clear glass lamp starting in September 2009, and will progressively ban all inefficient incandescent lamps by 2012 and all incandescent lamps by 2016. The Energy Information and Security Act of 2007 began the process of restricting the sale of inefficient lamps in the US.

Market Opportunities for LED Replacement Lamps

By 2012, with a few exceptions, inefficient incandescent lamps cannot be sold. Although the awareness of these regulations is still weak in the marketplace, they will create market opportunities for LED replacement lamps.

Recognizing the potential of LED technology to save energy, policy makers have been supporting the research and development of LED technology and helping its commercialization.

In the short run, while LED replacement lamps become a viable alternative, regulators are encouraging compac t fluorescent lamps (CFLs).

However, over the next five years the advantages of LED technology over CFL will become recognized, especially with respect to the quality of light, dimmability, controllability, lamp life and environmental cost of ownership.

• Some well-designed LED lamps already offer effective lumen efficacies that compete with CFLs.
• The commercial and industrial segments will embrace LEDs to control costs and save energy.
• The LED lamps will be used for directed light applications, in hard-to-reach places and where the cost of re placement is very high.

Replacement Lamp Market Growth Projected at 107%

Although the market for LED replacement lamps is still in its early stages of development, the lamp revenues are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 107% through 2013.

Strategies Unlimited explores the market potential for LED lighting technology in its latest report titled LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009. The report analyzes five LED-based lamp types that are designed to replace lamps that currently populate billions of sockets:

• A-lamp and globes;
  
• PAR and R lamps;
  
• MR 16's;
  
• candelabra and decorative lamps;
  
• linear fluore scent tubes.

The markets for five categories of replacement lamps are analyzed for market drivers and challenges, trends, units and revenues for 2008. The report also offers a five-year forecast for 2009-2013.

LED Replacement Lamps--Market Analysis and Forecast, 2009 is available from Strategies Unlimited at a price of $1,895. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650-941-3438 ext. 23, by e-mail at tcarli@strategies-u.com, or on the company web site, www.strategies-u.com.

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Sales of lasers for low-power materials processing has fallen by 40% 2009, but sales will grow to exceed $460 million by 2013.

Coherent, Rofin-Sinar, and GSI Group (including the revenues for Excel Technology for all of 2008) are at the top of the list in last year's market share.

While the market appears at first to be merely scaling to the world economy, it is also likely to disrupt market share in many segments, in a game of musical chairs. These are some of the conclusions of a new report from Strategies Unlimited, a market research firm covering optoelectronics markets.

The strongest growth will be in fiber lasers, diode lasers, green lasers, m ode-locked (ultrafast) lasers, and lasers for manufacturing solar cells. All segments will see some growth beginning in 2010, but there will be more shuffling of technologies and suppliers than is first apparent, given the evolving situation in these segments.

Lasers for Micro Materials Processing--2009 includes all material processing applications up to 1 kilowatt, but excluding marking and decorative engraving. The report extends its audit to over 120 applications and the wide range of technology solutions in this highly fragmented category. The report examines more segments than ever before, including: end-user sectors, processes, power levels, pulse types, laser types, and wavelengths. For more information, contact Strategies Unlimited at +1 650 941-3438 (voice) or e‑mail at info@strategies‑u.com, or check the company's web site at www.strategies-u.com.

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The market for image sensors will decline to $6.4 billion in 2009, a drop of 11% from 2008 and the first decline since Strategies Unlimited began tracking the market in 1997.

Growth is expected to return in 2010, but the average growth rate will be in the single-digits in coming years, following over a decade of 22% compound annual growth, shown in Figure 1.

Figure: Image sensor revenues (visible range area arrays and packaged linear arrays, including captive production). Source: Strategies Unlimited (2009)

A new, more cyclic phase. 

There's a perfect convergence of forces leading to rapid growth
in image sensor revenues for cameraphones.

The current global economic cycle is driving a temporary decline, but cycles will have a stronger effect going forward, now that the perfect convergence of forces leading to rapid growth in image sensor revenues for cameraphones is maturing. There will still be growth in unit sales in coming years for image sensors overall, but short-term fluctuations in demand, periods of oversupply and shortage, and severe price pressure will make it more challenging to stay competitive than before.

CCD Turmoil in Japan.

Japan used to dominate world image sensor production, and still manufactures over 90% of the world's CCDs. CCDs continue to dominate in digital still cameras and security cameras. Even so, Fujifilm stopped production of image sensors for its line of cameras in 2007. Sony is thinking of stopping its production of CMOS arrays for cameraphones, and Panasonic has already done so.

Koreans make huge strides.

Meanwhile, Korean and Taiwanese suppliers are gaining market share, especially for cameraphones.

Samsung grew 61% from 2006 to 2008, placing it among the top suppliers.

We are also seeing increased competition from other Korean and Taiwanese companies, such as SETi, SiliconFile Technologies, and PixArt Imaging. Hynix reentered the image sensor business in the second half of 2008. These companies are focusing on the China handset market.

Image Sensors: Market Review and Forecast-2009 is the fifth in a series by Strategies Unlimited and it continues to be the most comprehensive and in-depth market report on the subject. It includes all image sensing applications in the visible spectrum, including scintillator-coated arrays for x-ray radiography. The study draws heavily on Strategies Unlimited's extensive interviews with suppliers in Japan, Korea, the U.S., and Europe, combined with its deep expertise in this market. For more information, contact Strategies Unlimited at +1 650 941-3438 (voice) or e mail at info@strategies u.com, or check the company's web site at www.strategies-u.com.

Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and strategic consulting directed at optoelectronics and compound semiconductors. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation, a global media and information company. 

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The City of Chicago and U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) Chicago Chapter selected Derry Berrigan Lighting Design (DBLD), for its LEED Platinum expansion of the Chicago Center for Green Technology (CCGT), the Greenbuild Chicago 2007 Legacy Project.

DBLD achieved 45% below ASHRAE 2004 standards exceeding LEED Platinum requirements by 10% without any aesthetic or lighting quality compromises using daylighting and light emitting diode (LED) lighting sources.

City of Chicago's Center for Green Technology

This accomplishment is a major advancement for sustainable lighting design. Jeff Beaver, Project Manager, DBLD, said "We are proud to be a part of this expansion project. The City of Chicago's Center for Green Technology is a place for learning by demonstration, every community should have one. The Center's educational outreach to more than 20,000 visitors a year will raise awareness of and support for sustainable lighting design and the viability of LED lighting for general illumination. This project has set a high benchmark and proven that LED lighting sources must become the new standard."

Derry Berrigan, DBLD's principal lighting designer, stated, "The three pillars of sustainability -- people, prosperity, and the planet must be considered equally while designing. We have the responsibility as lighting designers to not only deliver aesthetically pleasing visual environments while meeting the task requirements of the occupants, but also consider the total environmental and economic impact of our designs. We have the techniques and tools to deliver sustainable lighting now, and we owe it to our clients and our futures to do it."

Lighting Tops a Building's Electricity Consumption

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, lighting accounts for approximately 30% of a building's electricity consumption, its largest single demand. The cost to the environment is enormous.

The Chicago Center for Green Technology's first phase of expansion

• utilizes high-performance LED technology (90% of all lighting fixtures in the Center are LED),
• all occupants have access to outdoor views and daylight,
• leading-edge Lutron lighting controls provide additional opportunities in minimizing energy usage, up to 50%.

These strategies will allow the Center to reduce its energy consumption and environmental impact, and save money on electricity and maintenance costs.

LR6 LED Downlights fro LED Lighting Fixtures

One of the new and innovative lighting technologies used at the Center are the LR6 LED downlights from LED Lighting Fixtures, Inc. (LLF).

The LR6 consumes only 12 watts, saving 39% in energy consumption over fluorescent and 83% over incandescent lighting sources. Berrigan said, "The LR6 is the most ecofriendly interior lighting product available today. It produces better light quality than any traditional light source."

LR6 Leads the LED Pathway to Green Design

The LR6 is manufactured using recycled aluminum, contains no hazardous mercury, emanates no noticeable heat, produces no UV, lasts 50,000 hours, and guaranteed for three-years.

Stephen Bell, Director of the Chicago Center for Green Technology, observed, "The challenge for the team at DBLD was to create a lighting design that met the stringent LEED Platinum standards and our needs while specifying products that were both environmentally-conscious and within our budget. I am pleased that they exceeded every standard and overcame the many challenges all within budget."

About Derry Berrigan Lighting Design (DBLD)

Derry Berrigan Lighting Design (DBLD), located in Northwest Arkansas, provides sustainable lighting design services to select residential, retail, office, hospitality, and restaurant projects across the United States. DBLD creates sustainable lighting designs that enhance architectural character, produce an inviting atmosphere, and increase the comfort and security for the occupants through thoughtful and artistic use of light. By meeting design challenges with creative, energy-conscious solutions, DBLD has established a reputation for versatility, reliability, and innovation.

 

About Chicago Center for Green Technology
Derry Berrigan Lighting Design
119 E Walnut St
Rogers, AR 72756
(479) 636-4697


The City of Chicago's Center for Green Technology is a nationally- recognized green building with a Platinum LEED certification. It is a model for green building and a valuable resource showcasing green and sustainable building techniques, technologies, and materials that, when used, can enhance the quality of life for the building's occupants, save money, energy, and resources, and reduce the building's impact on the environment. The Center helps professionals and property owners learn how green technology is cost- effective, good for people and the environment, and how they can use it.

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LED business ... Design arena is the opportunity today!

Diffusers... new colors, new designs...

Who attended the Strategies in Light 2009  show?

The audience profile reflects the following business segments:

• LED manufacturers
• Suppliers of equipment and materials to the LED industry
• LED system manufacturers
• Lighting architects
• Automotive lighting suppliers
• Lighting product manufacturers
• Lighting system designers
• LED product designers
• Financial analysts, investment bankers, and venture capitalists
• Corporate R & D staff

The senior decision makers represent some of the leading companies in LED manufacturing such as:

• Nichia
• Cree
• Agilent
• Stanley Electric
• Toyoda Gosei
• Philips/Lumileds
• Everlight
• Rohm
• Epistar
• Bridgelux
• Arima Optoelectronics
• LG Innotek
• Cotco
• Liteon
• Sharp
• Osram Opto Semiconductors
• Samsung Electro- Mechanics

Strategies Unlimited Reports High-Brightness LED Market Poised for Rapid Growth in 2010 and Beyond

Market Report: September 14, 2009
 

• Continuing the trend of recent years, high-brightness LED market growth for 2008 was 11%, reaching $5.1 billion, in spite of a shaky fourth quarter.
• However, a decline of 3.7% is expected for 2009, resulting in a market size of $4.9 billion.

This decline will not affect all HB LED market segments equally. For example, although some of the more mature markets such as automotive lighting, mobile phones, and outdoor video screens are experiencing substan tial downturns, other emerging segments such as backlights for LCD displays in notebook computers and TVs are showing strong growth.

• Moreover, the LED lighting market is also continuing to grow, although at a somewhat slower pace than in recent years.

According to market research firm Strategies Unlimited in its recently released report High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast - 2009, lighting and LCD backlighting are the applications that will drive market reco very in 2010 and over the next five years, with market growth forecast at a CAGR of 24%, reaching $14.9 billion in 2013.

In all market segments, the penetration rates for the use
of HB LEDs continue to grow.

The fundamental drivers for HB LED adoption have not changed. It is the impact of the worldwide economic recession on end product demand, rather than any slowdown in the rate of HB LED adoption, that is causing the HB LED market to dip in 2009.

As noted above, lighting and LCD backlighting are providing strong counterweights to the decline in other segments, and they have moderated the rate of overall HB LED market contraction.

The new Strategies Unlimited report is the tenth from the company on LED applications and markets. It analyzes the HB LED market in depth, from both the demand side and the supply side, including supplier market shares. Detailed quantitative market analysis is provided, including breakouts by application and product type, in terms of units, ASPs and revenue. Five-year market forecasts are provided for each application and HB LED product type.

High-Brightness LED Market Review and Forecast -- 2009 is available for immediate delivery from Strategies Unlimited for $5,450. More information on the report is available by contacting Tim Carli, Sales Manager, at +1 650 941-3438 ext. 23, or by email at tcarli@strategies-u.com.

Founded in 1979, Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research and strategic consulting directed at the optoelectronics and compound semiconductor industries. It has published reports on LED markets and technology since 1994, and it established the first annual industry conference on HB LEDs, known as Strategies in Light, in 2000. The company, based in Mountain View, California, is a research unit of PennWell Corporation.

Quantifying the Future

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Strategies Unlimited specializes in market research reports, custom studies, and newsletters directed at the optoelectronic, optical communications, photovoltaic, compound semiconductor material, and RF/microwave components industries.  With its in-depth understanding of market applications, technology developments, industry participants, and government policies, the company has attained an outstanding record in market forecasting.

Robert V. Steele
Director, LED Practice
B.S. Chemistry, M.I.T.
Ph.D. Physical Chemistry,
University of California (Berkeley)

At Strategies Unlimited since 1982, Dr. Steele is responsible for optoelectronics studies and reports on such subjects as high-brightness LEDs, solid-state lighting, laser diodes, datacom transceivers, and advanced compound semiconductor materials. He is the chair of Strategies Unlimited's annual conference Strategies in Light on the high brightness LED industry. Previously he was also the editor of the Strategies Unlimited optoelectronics industry newsletter, The Light Source, and was a major contributor to 16 studies prepared for the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association's (OIDA) roadmap program. Dr. Steele writes regularly for industry publications on high-brightness LED markets and applications, and has been an invited speaker at several international conferences. As an internationally recognized expert in this subject has been interviewed and quoted by major publications, including Forbes, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist, among others.

Dr. Steele has over 30 years of professional experience, and was previously employed at SRI International, Flow General, and United Technologies Corporation.

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White LEDs show promise as a brighter, longer-lasting and more energy-efficient light source than conventional lighting, such as incandescent and fluorescent lights, which they may replace in the future. But scientists have had difficulty producing white LEDs that are suitable for practical use. Existing technologies produce tinted shades of white light, require complex components, and become unstable over time.

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Artist Patrick Marold from Denver, Colorado has created 1,000 polycarbonate poles topped by three aluminum cups. When turned by the wind, each powers a small built-in generator attached to an LED that sends light down into the shaft, thereby, displaying the wind's power. This Windmill Project is featured in an exhibition ("Human=Landscape") hosted by Burlington City Arts in conjunction with the ECHO Lake Aquarium and Science Center and the Energy Project Vermont.

 http://energyprojectvt.com/art.htm

This array of "turbines" maps the behavior of wind and allows us to visualize the resource's invisible potential.  

These tiny wind turbines highlight a huge issue that has been spinning throughout Vermont: Should the State capture the wind to generate power or should Vermont avoid building turbines because they will ruin the view of the scenic mountain ridge lines?

This exhibit will be running through November 1, 2009. You can check out (a sampling of the windmills at ECHO's "Wind: Power & Play" showcase.  Get more information at: http://www.echovermont.org/programs/cafesci-topic9.html

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